Published as found, negatives included
Most quantitative research dies quietly. We publish ours, positive or not, because the discipline that kills a weak signal in backtest is the same discipline that protects capital in production. Each note below is a complete study: the question, the test design, the statistics, and a fixed verdict.
June 2026 series
Alt-data signals at institutional scale
We scaled three free alternative-data signals from 10-name panels to a 500-name universe: 18 test cells, tens of thousands of position decisions each. Nothing clears the significance bar, the small-panel anomalies dissolve, and the research line closes with a measured answer rather than an open question.
18 backtests · verdict: closed
June 2026 series
Which way do alternative-data signals point?
Insider buying is good, bad news is bad, an expensive borrow is a warning, or so the textbook says. A symmetric sign test across 58 backtests finds two of the three assumptions are backwards, and the one that survives fails a pre-registered confirmation.
58 backtests · pre-registered
June 2026 series
Does alternative data improve a simple trend model?
Three free alt-data overlays (insider filings, news sentiment, borrow fees) applied to a single-name trend rule, scored with honest conditional statistics. No overlay adds significant return, and the trend rule itself loses to holding the index.
36 backtests · sweep